JIPIN PRASAD
June 2, 2025 at 03:40 PM
8 രൂപ മുതൽ 43 വരെ പറഞ്ഞ stock Suzlon FY25 Results: PAT Up 190%, Eyes 60% Growth in FY26 Backed by 5.5 GW firm orders and a growing EPC pipeline, Suzlon must deliver flawlessly—rich valuations demand execution, margin stability, and timely CODs. What Changed Between FY21–25 3× Revenue Growth: Scale-up across WTG, OMS, and SE Forge. Platform Evolution: S144 matured to industrial scale with 5+ GW orders. Capacity Ramp-Up: Expanded nacelle, blade, and tower plants to 4.5 GW capacity. Customer Base Shift: Now includes PSU majors like NTPC, Torrent, BPCL. Cash Conversion: ₹1,943 Cr net cash in FY25 vs ₹110 Cr in FY24; DTA recognition aids equity base. Service Model Deepening: OMS AUM >15.1 GW (Suzlon) + 3 GW (Renom), annuity cash flows. Export & Digital Readiness: Azure OpenAI-led digital infra; export interest from EU OEMs. Business Model Evolution: From asset-light supplier to vertically integrated solution partner. Execution Breakout: Record quarterly deliveries (573 MW), with robust commissioning visibility across PSU and C&I orders. Operating Leverage Playbook: Higher scale and factory utilization improved cost absorption and margin lift. One-Time Boost: ₹600 Cr deferred tax asset recognition pushed PAT to record high—supporting equity base restoration. Platform Dominance: S144 turbine now over 90% of order mix, driving better pricing and tech alignment for FDRE projects. ROCE improved in FY25, driven by stronger execution, higher contribution margins, and improved working capital after full ramp-up of 4.5 GW capacity. ROE rise, supported by ₹2,072 Cr PAT and a stronger equity base. The FY23 spike (262.7%) was a low-base anomaly; FY25 reflects normalized returns. Valuation Analysis – Suzlon Energy FY26E P/E is calculated by assuming a 60% growth on FY25 PAT excluding DTA Trailing valuations are elevated, reflecting Suzlon’s turnaround year in FY25 with record revenue, 118% growth in deliveries, and normalized PAT doubling YoY. At current levels, valuation implies a full price for flawless execution. With Suzlon guiding for 60% growth in FY26, the stock trades at ~42× forward earnings — still rich relative to industrial peers. Valuation rerating depends on execution certainty, especially on commissioning (COD), order-to-cash cycles, and margin maintenance. While balance sheet strength (₹1,943 Cr net cash) supports confidence, working capital pressures and project timing remain key watchpoints. No room for multiple expansion unless FY26 outperforms guidance both P/E and EV/EBITDA are already near upper decile of renewables/infra comparables. Valuation compression is possible, especially if delivery execution lags or margins dip. The Street may model a derating from 47× → 35–38× as normalized PAT scales in FY26. Despite a clean balance sheet and leadership in India’s wind OEM market, Suzlon’s margin of safety is low at current valuations. The stock prices in a strong FY26 already, and any slip in execution, margin, or cash conversion could trigger a derating. Valuation Risk Factors: Market expectations: Premium multiples demand PAT > ₹2,200 Cr and margin stability above 17% Execution dependency: FY26 depends on timely EPC conversions and CODs Supporting Positives: S144 turbine scaled across 5.6 GW+ order book Visibility into FY26–27 revenue through backlog
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