
S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
May 16, 2025 at 09:17 AM
FIRST TAKE: Red Sea transit restarts seen BEARISH for LNG freight rates, Platts JKM
*Trump said US bombing of Yemen and Houthi ship attacks have halted
*Suez Canal Authority offers toll fee cuts to boost boxship traffic on Red Sea Route
*LNG transits on some key trade routes could benefit from Red Sea reopening
Any resumption of Red Sea transits for cargo ships will be BEARISH for Platts JKM prices and LNG freight rates as it will bring down transportation and optimization costs, and accelerate LNG deliveries that currently have to go around the Cape of Good Hope.
Since US President Donald Trump announced a halt to US bombing of Yemen May 6 and claimed that Houthi rebels would stop attacking ships in the region, ship owners and charterers have been considering restarting Red Sea transits. The US side deal with the Houthis seems to reflect a current willingness to take regional actions that are not aligned with Israeli interests.
Earlier in the week, Egypt's Suez Canal Authority offered to reduce toll fees for large containerships for 90 days as an incentive to resume Red Sea transits and stem steep revenue losses. Ship owners are still waiting for P&I Clubs to give the green light and remove war risk premiums.
LNG freight rates are already near multiyear lows, and lower rates would trigger layups, more scrapping and fleet consolidation. However, certain routes, such as Qatar-Europe, US-India and Russia-Asia (via the Northwest Passage), could see average voyage times fall materially. On May 15, Platts reported Pacific day rates for TFDE carriers at $13,500/d and two-stroke carriers at $22,000/d.
Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/597pxv52