FIRST TAKE: Lack of progress on Trump-Putin phone call NEUTRAL for TTF Laurent Ruseckas *The call does not appear to have resulted in tangible progress despite Trump’s optimistic comments *Cautious remarks from Putin make clear that Russia’s negotiating position has not changed *Possibility of peace agreement or ceasefire that could lead to return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe remains distant Following a two-hour phone call May 19 between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Putin moved first to set the narrative with brief press comments that spoke of continuing with talks but showed no specific flexibility. Trump followed with more optimistic comments on social media, saying that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine “will begin immediately” but without details. Given that the TTF paper market no longer seems to reflect any expectation that Russian pipeline gas will return to Europe in significant volumes, the call is NEUTRAL rather than bullish for TTF prices. The fundamental barrier to a peace agreement remains the huge gap between the terms apparently endorsed by the US – based on an April 17 media leak – and terms that Russia would consider acceptable. Evidence suggests that Russia’s leadership continues to believe it has the upper hand both militarily and politically if the conflict drags on, and that it could manage the human and economic costs of ongoing war. Russia might make major concessions (although not in a phone call or even a Trump-Putin meeting) only if the US were to threaten devastating sanctions, for instance on Russian oil exports, or massively increased support for Ukraine’s military efforts. There is no sign either of these are being seriously considered. Next steps are unclear, although Trump’s focus on Russian-Ukrainian negotiations rather than a personal meeting with Putin may suggest that the US is beginning to disengage. If peace talks collapse, it no longer seems likely that the US would blame Ukraine exclusively. But we are not ruling out a scenario in which US sanctions on Arctic-2 LNG were lifted as part of US-Russia normalization even without peace in Ukraine. Absent a peace agreement, a return of medium-scale Russian pipeline gas to Europe will remain politically impossible. Read on PlattsConnect: https://tinyurl.com/35x3urez