
S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
May 21, 2025 at 05:35 AM
FIRST TAKE: LNG Canada project start-up BEARISH for Asian spot LNG prices
Eric Yep
*Petronas CEO says first cargo expected in a matter of weeks for Asian market
*Project start-up in time to meet peak Asian summer demand season
*West coast North America-Asia route cuts voyage days and shipping emissions
LNG Canada’s imminent start-up will be BEARISH for Asian spot LNG prices as its cargoes are targeted at markets in this region and the first supply trance will be just in time to meet peak summer season demand.
Shell-operated LNG Canada, with a designed capacity of 14 million mt/year, is expected to ship its first cargo in a “matter of weeks” according to project partner Petronas’ CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik’s comments at the World Gas Conference in Beijing this week.
The project is Canada’s first foray into LNG exports, and it opens up the direct Pacific route from the west coast of North America to Asia. The voyage to North Asia is around 11-12 days, less than half of the 30-plus days for US Gulf Coast LNG around the Cape and 20-plus days via the Panama Canal. This not only cuts shipping costs but reduces Scope 3 transportation emissions by more than half for importers like Japan, South Korea and China.
Canadian LNG will have a displacement effect in Asian markets that pushes out Atlantic basin volumes, some Mideast LNG and flexible US Gulf Coast LNG into Europe; and competes with local suppliers like Australia. LNG Canada’s main offtakers are Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and KOGAS, and initial offtake will be aligned with equity stakes.
Petronas has said it had sold some LNG Canada volumes linked to the Canada Alberta Energy Company (AECO) index that also introduces a new LNG price indexation to the market.
Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/275ffr9r