FIRST TAKE: Emerging case for US natural gas production curtailments BULLISH for summer Henry Hub prices Luke Larsen *Surging incentives for near-term supply management by producers could tighten US near-term gas market *Recent patterns in monetization efforts show producers can adjust supply levels when market is out of balance *Aggressive selloff in the front of Henry Hub curve widened June’s discount to Winter 2025-26 to almost $1.25/MMBtu The pullback in US natural gas futures last week had further blown open a prospective economic window, allowing for a renewed market balancing effort that could reshape the Lower 48 production profile in the weeks ahead. This bullish spin comes as Henry Hub spot prices have struggled to find traction above $3.25/MMBtu during the first half of May. With the June Henry Hub expiration just over a week away, operators are eyeing the opportunity to potentially monetize any residual production flexibility amid a widening discount or contango value for the upcoming winter. As recently as May 16, the US natural gas commodity continued to exhibit a lucrative forward carry environment -- characterized by much higher values during the upcoming heating season -- which had widened to almost $1.25/MMBtu for the June Henry Hub contract. Only a week earlier, that value had been 98 cents/MMBtu May 9. However, spot price weakness throughout May, along with multiple weeks of massive storage injections exceeding 100 Bcf each, allowed the contango-shaped discount in the forward curve to extend into an even more lucrative territory as the end of the month approaches. While current Lower 48 production levels have consistently flirted with record daily and monthly levels in recent weeks, spot prices have suffered considerably during a relatively mild start to the US summer cooling season. Additional widening could occur in the days ahead, as physical market struggles are expected to potentially peak over the upcoming US Memorial Day holiday weekend. Read on PlattsConnect: https://tinyurl.com/4f2c4sbf