FIRST TAKE: Trump's threat of 50% EU tariff BEARISH for TTF gas price *Trump expresses frustration with EU trade talks, recommends 50% tariff across the board, effective June 1 *The threat is a negotiating tactic, but it will be difficult for the EU to respond quickly with meaningful concessions *If imposed or not, it adds near-term risk to EU economic prospects and could impact European gas demand *EU tariff retaliation on US LNG is extremely unlikely US President Donald Trump's suggestion of a 50% tariff on all EU trade had an immediate but fleeting impact on natural gas markets May 23. The TTF MA price on ICE fell 3% on the news but recovered most of the decline in subsequent trading. The tariff threat remains BEARISH for TTF because trade tensions are back in focus, increasing economic uncertainty in Europe. The EU faces a unique challenge as it negotiates trade with the US. Trade and tariffs are an exclusive EU competence, and European Commission trade chief Maroš Šefčovič has full authority to speak for the EU on these issues. But EU tariffs on US goods have almost nothing to do with the trade balance. To the extent that the EU surplus is about policy rather than the structure of the two economies or consumer preferences, it relates to non-tariff barriers such as EU food safety rules. Most of these elements are “shared competences” and subject to EU rules that cannot be amended without a complex legal process involving the EC, the European Parliament, and member states. There is little a team of EU trade negotiators can credibly promise in many areas where their US counterparts may have grievances. Part of the EU negotiating strategy has been promising to buy more US LNG — something the EU hopes to achieve by phasing out Russian gas. This has obviously not been enough for Trump. It now seems unlikely that US tariffs on the EU will remain at 10% following the three-month tariff pause announced April 9. One point of relative certainty is that any EU tariff retaliation will not touch US LNG, since this would translate directly into higher energy costs in Europe. Read on PlattsConnect: https://tinyurl.com/y3anvbeb