FIRST TAKE: Threats to Libyan production potentially BULLISH for Med sweet differentials   * Increased violence in Libya raises risk of force majeure on production/exports. * Tankers ballasting to or already berthed in Libya up on the week, suggesting no visible avoidance of region. * Rising crude stocks globally imply little impact on broader markets but Med sweet crude differentials might be affected similar to August 2024 when production issues drove Azeri Light differentials $3/b higher.   A May 29 threat of force majeure on both oil production and ports by Libya’s eastern political faction is mostly BULLISH for near-term Med Sweet crude differentials like Azeri Light. But ample crude stocks globally – especially in light of an expected increase in OPEC+ output in July – will likely keep any lasting price rallies at bay. Further, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data shows 21 tankers either ballasting to Libya or already berthed at Libyan ports this week, up from 17 tankers last week. This suggests business as usual for Libyan exports, or at least a wait-and-see approach from shippers.   As recently as August 2024, a two-week production disruption triggered a $3/b increase in Azeri Light differentials, which quickly cooled once exports restarted.   Chaos across Libya, including in the capital Tripoli, includes attacks on Libya’s National Oil Corp. It’s not clear yet what rumors will be substantiated, but a threat of force majeure has been reported widely. The eastern Benghazi ruling faction said on May 29 that it “may be forced to take a number of precautionary measures, including declaring force majeure on oil fields and ports.”   The 300,000 b/d Sharara and 90,000 b/d El-Feel oil fields are in the west of the country, but export terminals in Ras Lanuf and Marsa-el-Braga are in the east. Libya produced around 1.3 million b/d in Q1 2025 with forecasts indicating a slight reduction out to 2026.   James Bambino, Richard Joswick, Zhuwei Wang   Read more on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/yk5k8wb6