FIRST TAKE: OPEC+ production increase of 411,000 b/d for July BEARISH for oil prices after summer pause   * High seasonal refinery runs and crude burn will reduce the impact on OPEC+ exports and global inventory levels over the summer. * Crude stocks have been building all year. Additional sustained OPEC+ production will push inventory significantly higher with peak pressure in Q4, driving Dated Brent prices into $50s after the summer.   The prompt crude market has likely already priced in OPEC+'s July production unwinding of 411,000 b/d in voluntary cuts. We expect this announcement to be NEUTRAL for oil prices at Monday's opening, as rising crude burn and global refinery runs will obscure the effects of increased production on exports and inventory. But we expect the sustained output increase to be BEARISH for oil prices especially after the summer.   Saudi Arabia's crude exports were essentially flat in May compared with April according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data despite announced OPEC+ production increases for May. We anticipate a rise in Saudi crude burn, alongside refinery run increases as facilities ramp up after maintenance. Consequently, crude Saudi exports may not show much near-term increase. UAE crude exports rose by about 100,000 b/d in May. Collectively, the production increases announced for May, June, and July will become much more visible to the market after summer’s peak crude demand. Crude stock builds during October, when refinery runs decline for maintenance, could approach 2 million b/d depending in part on the actual level of sustained OPEC+ production increases.   Zhuwei Wang | Richard Joswick | James Bambino   Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/55m7mujc