FIRST TAKE: Alberta wildfires currently NEUTRAL but potentially BULLISH for WCS, Syncrude differentials   * Oil sands production is starting to be affected by wildfires in Alberta. Seven fires are considered “out of control” but remain well west of the Ft. McMurray oil sands “hub”. MEG Energy evacuated non-essential personnel from Christina Lake facility and has delayed 70,000 b/d of planned production ramp-up. * Canadian Natural shut 36,500 b/d of bitumen at Jackfish 1 thermal site; all workers have been safely relocated. * Refinery capacity totaling around 500,000 b/d is concentrated around Edmonton and is not currently at risk.   A presently small impact to Albertan oil sands production due to wildfires is NEUTRAL for Western Canadian Select crude differentials at Hardisty. With seven wildfires west of Ft. McMurray as of June 1, according to Alberta Wildfire, only 70,000 b/d of MEG Energy at its Christina Lake facility and 36,500 b/d of production at Canadian Natural’s Jackfish 1 site have been impacted.   The region is home to around 4.2 million b/d of exportable crude, most of which is heavy sour, which feeds US Midwest and Gulf Coast coking refineries. In addition, roughly 260,000 b/d of WCS-like crude has found a market in China – its highest on record in May – via the 570,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. Substantial refinery capacity – around 500,000 b/d – is concentrated near Edmonton and is not currently at risk.   The nature of wildfires means that if winds move east, much more crude production would be at risk, pushing an already strong WCS differential higher. Platts last assessed WCS ex-Hardisty at a $8.70/b discount to WTI, its strongest since September 2020. WCS ex-Nederland is strong as well at WTI minus $2.65/b as of May 30. Seasonal production maintenance has been a driver of recent strength, but lower volumes from Mexico and Venezuela to the US Gulf Coast have also limited heavy sour supply.   Wildfires in May 2023 triggered a shut-in of around 385,000 boe/d of conventional light sweet output, driving both Syncrude and WCS rallies. In 2016, wildfires triggered the largest evacuation in Albert’s history and eventually cut output by around 400,000 b/d. Wildfires in May 2024, however, had negligible impact on production.   James Bambino | Richard Joswick   Read more on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/4rm8zt95