S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
June 3, 2025 at 06:17 AM
FIRST TAKE: South Korea summer forecast BULLISH for Asian spot LNG prices *Temperatures from June to August are expected to be higher than usual *South Korea’s gas use in power for the summer months has been growing steadily *New government after the elections to stimulate economy and energy demand The forecast for high summer temperatures in South Korea is BULLISH for Platts JKM spot LNG prices as peak seasonal cooling demand should draw down gas inventories and pull in more spot volumes. The Korea Meteorological Administration said in its summer forecast on June 2 that average temperatures from June to August are expected to be higher than usual, with only a 10% chance of lower-than-normal temperatures in July and August. South Korea, parts of Japan and northern China have already seen a bout of hot weather since mid-May. Still, the LNG market impact was limited as they had exited a mild winter with healthy gas inventories, and the coal-based power supply had been ample. July-August tends to see peak summer LNG imports, which have been rising due to a structural increase in gas demand for power generation and cooling. Strong gas consumption will set the stage for heavier restocking in the shoulder season around October and put a floor on spot LNG prices ahead of winter. Summer demand will also help offset any drop in energy consumption due to softer economic activity. Last week, the Bank of Korea lowered its GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.5% for 2025, and to 1.6% from 1.8% for 2026, citing weak first-quarter GDP, US tariffs, and slowing exports, prompting a rate cut. Industrial production dropped in April and the new government is expected to introduce stimulus after the ongoing elections. Eric Yep Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/4jp9bbsf
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