FIRST TAKE: Israel-Iran confrontation risk BULLISH for JKM, TTF Eric Yep, Laurent Ruseckas *US withdrawal of diplomatic staff from parts of Middle East highlighted news that US-Iran nuclear talks may be heading for dead end *US President Trump has made pessimistic comments this week about chances of a deal *Even if military strike on Iran is unlikely, its likelihood is clearly growing – supporting prices The evacuation of some US government personnel from embassies in the Middle East is BULLISH for JKM and TTF prices due to concerns about an Israeli military strike on Iran and further escalation of tensions in the region. News reports cited a June 11 State Department advisory on the departure of non-emergency US government personnel from Iraq due to heightened tensions. US President Donald Trump told reporters later in the day that personnel were being moved out of the Middle East "because it could be a dangerous place, and we'll see what happens.” Reports cite expectations of an Israeli military operation in Iran and possible retaliation as the reason for the high alert levels. The UKMTO issued an advisory late-June 11 saying it had been made aware of “increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners.” It advised ships to transit the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz with caution. The specific risk to LNG supply is that Iran could retaliate by threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which just under 20% of global LNG exports pass -- mainly Qatari cargoes but also including exports from the UAE. Any disruption of LNG shipping lanes or targeting of other regional LNG and gas infrastructure would have an immediate and major impact on gas/LNG markets. In early-March, Trump had sent a letter to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei with a list of demands to be met within a two-month deadline. That deadline has passed, but there is talk that June 12 – two months after US-Iranian bilateral talks began – might be a revised deadline. Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/34y24w2u