FIRST TAKE: Israel's attack on Iran BULLISH for oil, but unlikely to last unless exports affected   • Retaliatory attack from Iran expected after Israel conducted strikes in Iran • Higher risk premiums might be sustained, but only if fighting/sanctions threaten oil exports • Iran crude exports drop to below 1.5 million b/d in May amid surging floating storage   Israel launched air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering potential retaliatory attacks from Iran in the coming hours. And reports are that Israeli attacks may continue as they are targeting underground facilities, which are hard to hit. The escalation is BULLISH for near-term oil prices, but the key question remains whether oil exports will be affected.   When Iran and Israel exchanged attacks previously, prices spiked initially but fell once it became clear that the situation was not escalating and there was no impact on oil supply.   Oil price risk premiums could rise sharply if Iran conducts broader retaliatory attacks (e.g., to targets other than in Israel). The surprise Israeli attack has clouded plans for the ongoing nuclear negotiations, with the next round initially expected over the upcoming weekend.   Escalation of tensions could also boost freight rates, tanker insurance premiums, narrow the Brent-Dubai spread and hurt refinery margins, particularly in Asia. If Iranian crude exports are disrupted, Chinese refiners, the sole buyers of Iranian barrels, would need to seek alternative grades from other Middle Eastern countries and Russian crudes.   Zhuwei Wang, Richard Joswick, James Bambino   Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/ykj4hvrn