A fertiliser shortage in Uttar Pradesh. A delayed shipment in Visakhapatnam. A military strike in the Middle East. Sounds unrelated, right? But zoom out, and a bigger picture emerges. Fertilisers. The unsung backbone of our food system. While the world obsesses over oil prices after a fresh Iran-Israel conflict, a quieter, more dangerous shock is brewing: one that starts with fertiliser shortages and ends with higher food prices on your plate. You see, the core ingredients that go into making fertilisers — nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, largely come from countries sitting on geopolitical fault lines. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Morocco - all critical suppliers. And when war or sanctions hit, these supply chains buckle. For India, which imports most of its fertilisers and spends over ₹1.8 lakh crore on subsidies just to keep prices low for farmers, this creates a dangerous squeeze. If prices rise globally, the government either swallows the extra cost, worsening the fiscal deficit, or lets prices trickle down to farmers and eventually to your local kirana store. So if your next packet of dal or atta feels slightly more expensive, the reason might be a fertiliser shipment stuck at a foreign port, not just a fuel hike. It’s a classic second-order effect. And it’s happened before. We break it down in today's Finshots: https://openinapp.link/m2is5