CSS Dawn Editorials ✨
June 15, 2025 at 04:56 AM
# *Detailed SUMMARY of the article "Crisis management balance" by Muhammad Amir Rana, Published in Dawn on June 15th, 2025:*
The article analyzes the implications of *Israel*'s strikes on *Iran* for *Pakistan*'s internal stability and geopolitical position, particularly amid *strengthening Pak-US relations*. *Field Marshal Asim Munir*'s visit to *America* for the *US Army's 250th anniversary* reflects evolving *bilateral ties*. The *Trump administration* had been celebrating its mediation between *nuclear-armed India and Pakistan* when *Israel* attacked *Iran*'s nuclear facilities over suspected *covert nuclear weapons development*. This attack aims to *derail US-Iran nuclear talks*, raising questions about *Washington*'s involvement since *Israel* likely wouldn't act without *US consent* or *tacit approval*. Academic *Vali Nasr* highlighted concerns about *America*'s role, with observers speculating about the timing of the *Pakistani army chief*'s visit and *Washington*'s praise for *Pakistan*, suggesting deeper engagement. Speculation indicates the *US* wants to *isolate Iran* and may consider *Pakistan*'s role in this strategy. If *Israel* struck with *American consent*, it would damage *Trump*'s image as a *global peace-broker*, especially given his claimed successes in *Russia-Ukraine mediation* and *India-Pakistan de-escalation*. *Pakistan-Iran relations* have faced challenges since *Gen Zia*'s regime but improved after a *January 2024 standoff*. Over the past year, both countries' *heads of state* and *military leadership* exchanged visits, signaling improved ties. *Iran* has prioritized *defense cooperation* with *Pakistan* despite stalled progress on the *Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline* and potential *international arbitration* concerns. *Tehran* seeks to expand influence through broader *economic and strategic cooperation*. *Iran* participated in *Pakistan*'s *Indus Shield exercise* last year, and *Iranian Chief of Staff Major-Gen Mohammad Bagheri* (killed in the *June 13 Israeli strike*) visited *Pakistan* earlier this year. *Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif* included *Iran* in his *Central Asia visits* after a *four-day India standoff*, expressing gratitude for *Iranian support*. *Counterterrorism* remains a major unresolved issue, with *Baloch insurgents* (both *secular and Islamist*) operating across the *shared border*, launching attacks from both sides. Despite official discussions, *militant groups* continue testing both countries' resolve, creating *mutual suspicions* about harboring *hostile elements*. Conversely, *counterterrorism cooperation* has become a convergence point for *Pakistan-US relations*. *President Trump* praised *Pakistan*'s role in *Congress*, and *US Central Command* chief *Gen Michael Kurilla* described *Pakistan*'s *counterterrorism collaboration* as *"phenomenal"* during a *House Armed Services Committee* hearing, highlighting effective operations against *IS-K* that killed *dozens of militants*. *India*, a close *US strategic partner*, was reportedly surprised by this *shift in tone* despite deep *defense, strategic, and economic ties*. The changing *US posture* after the *Israel-Iran confrontation* suggests *Washington* seeks a more *engaged and neutral role* for *Pakistan* in the evolving *regional context*. There's speculation that *Pakistan* is balancing *strategic relations* between *China* and the *West*, with *America*'s recent outreach viewed as *re-engagement efforts*. *Pakistan*'s consistent commitment to countering *transnational terrorism*, particularly along the *Afghan border*, has boosted its image as a *capable counterterrorism partner* globally. The *Iran-Israel conflict* has stirred *public sentiment* in *Pakistan* along *sectarian lines*, concerning for a country that recently controlled *sectarian violence*, though *Kurram district* remains vulnerable. *Social media* was flooded with *pro-Iranian* and *anti-Iranian posts* after *Israeli attacks*, with potential for *street activity* in coming days. *Pakistan*'s *security institutions* will likely monitor the situation for *internal security risks* and *geopolitical spillovers* while seeking to position itself as a *relevant actor* in the crisis. There may be a gap between *state strategy* and *public sentiment*, as *Pakistan*'s official response* from the *First Gulf War* to *Gaza brutality* has remained *cautious*, balancing ties with all major *regional players* including *Iran*, *Israel*, the *US*, and *Gulf states*. The challenge lies in effectively managing this balance between *geopolitics* and *public sentiments*.
# *Easy/Short SUMMARY*:
*Israel*'s strikes on *Iran* impact *Pakistan*'s stability and geopolitics amid improving *Pak-US ties*. *Army Chief Asim Munir*'s *US visit* and *Trump*'s praise suggest *Washington* wants *Pakistan*'s role in *isolating Iran*. Despite recent *Pakistan-Iran* improvements through *defense cooperation* and *leadership exchanges*, *Baloch insurgents* remain a *bilateral challenge*. *US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation* against *IS-K* has been *"phenomenal"*, surprising *India*. The conflict stirs *sectarian sentiments* in *Pakistan*, requiring careful balance between *state strategy* and *public opinion* while managing ties with *regional players*.
# *SOLUTIONS of The Problem*:
## *1. Maintain Strategic Neutrality*
Avoid taking sides in the *Israel-Iran conflict* while preserving relationships with all *regional stakeholders*.
## *2. Strengthen Border Security*
Enhance *Pakistan-Iran* cooperation to combat *Baloch insurgents* operating across *shared borders*.
## *3. Counter Sectarian Divisions*
Implement *anti-sectarian messaging* and *community engagement* to prevent *internal polarization*.
## *4. Continue Counterterrorism Cooperation*
Maintain *"phenomenal" US-Pakistan collaboration* against *IS-K* and other *terrorist groups*.
## *5. Pursue Balanced Diplomacy*
Balance relations between *China*, *US*, and *regional powers* without compromising *national interests*.
## *6. Complete Iran-Pakistan Pipeline*
Resolve the *gas pipeline project* to strengthen *economic ties* while managing *international concerns*.
## *7. Enhance Intelligence Sharing*
Improve *bilateral intelligence cooperation* with *Iran* to address *mutual security threats*.
## *8. Manage Public Sentiment*
Bridge the gap between *state policy* and *public opinion* through *transparent communication*.
## *9. Promote Regional Stability*
Advocate for *peaceful resolution* of *Middle East conflicts* through *multilateral diplomacy*.
## *10. Strengthen Internal Security*
Monitor *vulnerable areas* like *Kurram district* to prevent *sectarian violence* resurgence.
# *IMPORTANT Facts and Figures Given in the article*:
- *Field Marshal Asim Munir* visited *America* for *US Army's 250th anniversary*.
- *Israel* attacked *Iran*'s nuclear facilities on *June 13, 2025*.
- *Iranian Chief of Staff Major-Gen Mohammad Bagheri* was killed in the *Israeli strike*.
- *Pakistan-Iran* relations improved after a *January 2024 standoff*.
- *Iran* participated in *Pakistan*'s *Indus Shield exercise* last year.
- *Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif* included *Iran* in *Central Asia visits*.
- *Gen Michael Kurilla* described *Pakistan*'s counterterrorism as *"phenomenal"*.
- *Pakistan* has killed *dozens of IS-K militants* through *US cooperation*.
- *Kurram district* remains vulnerable to *sectarian violence*.
- *Pakistan*'s response has been *cautious* since the *First Gulf War*.
# *IMPORTANT Facts and Figures out of the article*:
- *Pakistan* has a *2,611 km border* with *Iran* (*Pakistan Bureau of Statistics*, 2024).
- *US military aid* to *Pakistan* was *$33.4 million* in *2024* (*Congressional Research Service*, 2024).
- *IS-K* conducted *77 attacks* in *Afghanistan* in *2024* (*UN Assistance Mission*, 2024).
- *Iran-Pakistan trade* reached *$2.3 billion* in *2023* (*State Bank of Pakistan*, 2024).
- *Pakistan*'s *Shia population* is approximately *15-20%* (*Pew Research*, 2023).
- *Balochistan* accounts for *44%* of *Pakistan*'s territory (*Government of Pakistan*, 2024).
# *MCQs from the Article*:
### 1. *Who is Pakistan's current army chief mentioned in the article?*
A. Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa
*B. Field Marshal Asim Munir*
C. Gen Raheel Sharif
D. Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani
### 2. *What did Gen Michael Kurilla call Pakistan's counterterrorism collaboration?*
A. Excellent
*B. Phenomenal*
C. Outstanding
D. Remarkable
### 3. *When did the Pakistan-Iran standoff occur that led to improved relations?*
A. December 2023
*B. January 2024*
C. March 2024
D. June 2024
### 4. *Which Pakistani district remains vulnerable to sectarian violence?*
A. Waziristan
B. Khyber
*C. Kurram*
D. Bajaur
### 5. *What was the name of the aerial drill Iran participated in with Pakistan?*
A. Eagle Shield
*B. Indus Shield*
C. Thunder Shield
D. Desert Shield
# *VOCABULARY*:
1. *Tacit* (خاموش) – Understood without being openly expressed
2. *Derail* (پٹری سے اتارنا) – Disrupt or cause to fail
3. *Covertly* (خفیہ طور پر) – Done in secret or hidden manner
4. *Thaw* (برف پگھلنا) – Improvement in relations after tension
5. *Static* (جامد) – Showing no change or development
6. *Arbitration* (ثالثی) – Settlement of disputes by independent party
7. *Insurgents* (باغی) – People fighting against government or authority
8. *Secular* (سیکولر) – Not connected with religious matters
9. *Harbouring* (پناہ دینا) – Giving shelter or protection to someone
10. *Convergence* (اتفاق) – Coming together or meeting point
11. *Phenomenal* (غیر معمولی) – Extraordinary or remarkable
12. *Militants* (جنگجو) – People engaged in aggressive political activity
13. *Posture* (رویہ) – Particular attitude or approach
14. *Outreach* (رابطہ کاری) – Effort to establish contact or communication
15. *Constructive* (تعمیری) – Having useful or beneficial purpose
16. *Transnational* (بین الاقوامی) – Extending across national boundaries
17. *Credible* (قابل اعتماد) – Able to be believed or trusted
18. *Sentiment* (جذبات) – Feelings or emotions about something
19. *Sectarian* (فرقہ وارانہ) – Related to religious or political divisions
20. *Spillovers* (اثرات) – Effects that spread beyond original area
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*www.dawn.com*
*Crisis management balance*
*Muhammad Amir Rana*
*7 - 8 minutes*
ISRAEL'S strikes within Iran have triggered a regional and global crisis. For Pakistan, the attack has implications for both internal stability and its geopolitical dynamics, especially in view of Islamabad's strengthening ties with Washington. The visit of army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir to America to attend the US Army's 250th anniversary celebrations is a reflection of the evolving nature of Pak-US relations.
The Trump administration had been celebrating its role in mediating a ceasefire between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan when Israel launched an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, allegedly over suspicions that the country was covertly developing nuclear weapons. The attack is likely to have an impact on negotiations between the US and Iran, as it becomes clear that one of Israel's motives behind its action was to derail the nuclear-related talks.
The dynamics of the Israel-Iran conflict are not the same as those in South Asia. But it is widely believed that Israel would not have taken such a step without the consent, or at least the tacit approval, of the Trump administration. As noted by academic Vali Nasr in a social media post, this has raised questions about Washington's involvement. Many observers are now viewing the recent visit of the Pakistani army chief through the same lens, with speculation mounting around the timing of Washington's praise for Pakistan, hinting at deeper engagement behind the scenes. Speculations suggest that the US wants to isolate Iran and is considering Pakistan's probable role in this context.
If Israel had struck Iran with America's consent, it would have damaged President Donald Trump's image as a so-called global peace-broker, particularly in light of his self-attributed success in mediation between Russia and Ukraine and the recent India-Pakistan de-escalation.
Since Gen Zia's regime, Pakistan-Iran relations have gone through several rough patches. However, ties began to improve following a brief stand-off in January 2024. Over the past year and a half, both heads of state and the top military leadership have exchanged visits, signalling a thaw in relations.
Since Gen Zia's regime, Pakistan-Iran relations have gone through several rough patches.
In addition to avoiding further confrontation with Pakistan, Iran has chosen to develop defence ties even as progress on the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline remains static. Despite the complexity of the deal and concerns that Iran might pursue international arbitration against this country, Tehran, it appears, has opted to prioritise broader economic and strategic aims through this project in view of its efforts to expand its influence. These efforts have begun to show signs of effectiveness.
Notably, last year, Iran participated in the Indus Shield exercise, a major multinational aerial drill organised by the Pakistan Air Force. Earlier this year, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, Major-Gen Mohammad Bagheri, who was killed in the Israeli strike on June 13, also visited Pakistan. More recently, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif included Iran in visits to Central Asia, following a four-day stand-off with India, expressing gratitude for their support during a difficult period.
A major unresolved issue between Iran and Pakistan is counterterrorism. Baloch insurgents, secular and Islamist, continue to operate along their shared border, using territory on both sides to launch attacks. Although the issue has been discussed repeatedly at official levels, militant groups continue to test the resolve of both countries. This has led to mutual suspicions, with each side seeing the other as harbouring or supporting hostile elements.
In contrast, counterterrorism cooperation has become a point of convergence between Pakistan and the US. During a congressional address, President Trump praised Pakistan's role. Just recently, the head of the US Central Command, Gen Michael Kurilla, described Pakistan's counterterrorism collaboration as "phenomenal" during a hearing of the US House Armed Services Committee. Highlighting Islamabad's effective operations against IS-K, he noted: "Through this exceptional partnership, Pakistan has targeted Daesh-Khorasan [IS-K], killing dozens of militants."
Reportedly, India, a close strategic partner of the US, was surprised at this shift in tone. Despite their deep defence, strategic, and economic ties, the changing US posture, especially after the Israel-Iran confrontation, suggests that Washington is seeking a more engaged and neutral role for Pakistan in the evolving regional context.
There has also been speculation that Pakistan is attempting to balance its strategic relations between China and the West. In this context, America's recent outreach is being viewed as an effort to re-engage Pakistan in a more constructive manner.
While geopolitics often invites speculation, it is quite clear that Pakistan has exhibited consistent commitment to countering all forms of transnational terrorism, particularly along the Afghan border. This has significantly boosted its image as a capable and credible counterterrorism partner on the global stage.
Beyond the strategic consequences of the Iran-Israel conflict for the Middle East or America's global standing and Pakistan's navigation of regional geopolitics, the conflict has stirred public sentiment within the country, mainly along sectarian lines. This is especially troubling for a country that has only recently brought sectarian violence under some control, although vulnerable areas remain, particularly in Kurram district. Social media was flooded with pro-Iranian and anti-Iranian posts just after the Israeli attacks on Iran. Though no significant activity has erupted on the streets so far, the possibility of this happening cannot be ruled out in the coming days.
Pakistan's security institutions will, in all probability, closely monitor the situation to assess both internal security risks and potential geopolitical spillovers. At the same time, the state may be seeking ways to position itself as a relevant actor in the crisis.
However, there may once again be a gap between state strategy and public sentiment. From the First Gulf War to Israel's repeated brutality in Gaza, Pakistan's official response has remained cautious, balancing its ties with all major players in the region, including Iran, Israel, the US, and the Gulf states.
Let's see how effectively it will manage this balance, particularly between geopolitics and public sentiments.
The writer is a security analyst.
Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2025
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