# *Detailed SUMMARY of the article "No surplus water" by Naseer Memon, Published in Dawn on June 16th, 2025:* The article challenges the *knee-jerk reaction* to build *new dams* following the *Indus Waters Treaty suspension*, arguing that *dam construction* requires *surplus water* which *Pakistan* currently lacks. Contrary to claims that water is *wasted into the sea*, *Indus river system flows* are *plummeting dramatically*. *Pakistan's river network* is divided into *eastern rivers* (*Sutlej* and *Ravi*) under *Indian control* and *western rivers* (*Indus*, *Jhelum*, and *Chenab*) under *Pakistani control*. Analysis of *50 years* of river flows reveals *alarming decreases*: *western rivers'* average inflows dropped from *135.6 MAF* during *1976-98* to *120.8 MAF* in *1999-2022*. *Eastern rivers* saw even more dramatic decline from *9.35 MAF* to just *2.96 MAF* in the same periods. *Flows below Panjnad barrage* registered a *65% decline*, falling from *20.5 MAF* (1976-2000) to *7.5 MAF* (2001-2024). *Canal withdrawals* by provinces reduced from *102.73 MAF* to *95.85 MAF* over *25 years*. *Kotri Barrage* flows tumbled from *40.7 MAF* to *14.8 MAF*, with *12 of the last 25 years* witnessing less than *10 MAF* flows. *Climate change* and *transboundary diversions* are primary causes of declining flows. *Flood frequency* has also decreased dramatically: *Guddu Barrage* received *medium floods* over *400,000 cusecs* for *23 years* during *1976-2000* but only *10 years* in the last *24 years*. *High floods* of *500,000 cusecs* declined from *20 times* to only *7 times*. *Sukkur Barrage* experienced *5 super floods* over *800,000 cusecs* during *1976-2000* but only *1* in subsequent *24 years*. The *World Bank report* "Pakistan's Water Economy: Running Dry" warns of a *colossal 30-40% decrease* in *Indus basin flows* due to *rapid glacial retreat*. The *UN's World Water Development Report 2025* reveals *glacier retreat* in the *Hindukush-Himalayan region* is *65% faster* during *2011-2020* compared to the previous decade. Current *under-construction projects* require an estimated *12 MAF* of additional water, including *Bhasha dam* (*6.4 MAF*), *Mohmand dam* (*0.88 MAF*), *Kurram Tangi dam* (*0.9 MAF*), *CRBC Lift cum Gravity project* (*1.19 MAF*), *Kachhi canal* (*1.21 MAF*), *Rainee canal* (*1.25 MAF*), and others. The author argues that *water managers* should abandon *over-simplistic solutions* of building *new dams* and focus on *water efficiency* and *productivity*. *Pakistan's national water policy* correctly emphasizes *efficient water use* and *conservation of water-dependent ecosystems*, especially the *degraded Indus delta*. The article concludes that *Pakistan* needs to shift from *concrete structures* to *efficient water utilization*. # *Easy/Short SUMMARY*: Following *IWT suspension*, calls for *new dams* ignore the reality that *Pakistan* lacks *surplus water*. *River flows* are *plummeting*: *western rivers* dropped from *135.6 MAF* to *120.8 MAF*, *eastern rivers* from *9.35 MAF* to *2.96 MAF*. *Kotri flows* fell from *40.7 MAF* to *14.8 MAF*, with *12 of 25 years* below *10 MAF*. *Climate change* and *glacial retreat* (*65% faster*) threaten *30-40% further decline*. *Under-construction projects* need *12 MAF* additional water. *Pakistan* must shift from *dam construction* to *water efficiency* and *conservation*. # *SOLUTIONS of The Problem*: ## *1. Focus on Water Efficiency* Implement *advanced irrigation techniques* like *drip irrigation* and *precision agriculture* to maximize *water productivity*. ## *2. Water Conservation Measures* Develop *rainwater harvesting*, *groundwater recharge*, and *water recycling systems* across the country. ## *3. Modernize Canal Systems* *Line canals* and upgrade *distribution networks* to reduce *water losses* during transportation. ## *4. Adopt Climate-Resilient Agriculture* Promote *drought-resistant crops* and *water-efficient farming practices* suitable for *reduced water availability*. ## *5. Strengthen Transboundary Cooperation* Engage *India* diplomatically to ensure *fair water sharing* and *prevent excessive upstream diversions*. ## *6. Implement Smart Water Management* Use *technology* and *data analytics* for *real-time monitoring* and *optimal water allocation*. ## *7. Restore Ecosystem Services* *Rehabilitate wetlands* and *natural water storage systems* to enhance *water retention capacity*. ## *8. Complete Existing Projects First* Focus resources on *completing under-construction dams* before initiating *new storage projects*. ## *9. Develop Alternative Water Sources* Invest in *desalination plants* and *treated wastewater reuse* for *urban* and *industrial needs*. ## *10. Create Water-Efficient Policies* Formulate *comprehensive water pricing* and *allocation policies* that encourage *conservation* and *efficient use*. # *IMPORTANT Facts and Figures Given in the article*: - *Western rivers* inflows dropped from *135.6 MAF* (1976-98) to *120.8 MAF* (1999-2022). - *Eastern rivers* flows declined from *9.35 MAF* to *2.96 MAF* in same periods. - *Panjnad barrage* flows decreased by *65%* from *20.5 MAF* to *7.5 MAF*. - *Canal withdrawals* reduced from *102.73 MAF* to *95.85 MAF* over *25 years*. - *Kotri Barrage* flows fell from *40.7 MAF* to *14.8 MAF*. - *12 of last 25 years* witnessed less than *10 MAF* flows below *Kotri*. - *Under-construction projects* require *12 MAF* additional water. - *Bhasha dam* needs *6.4 MAF*, *Mohmand dam* *0.88 MAF*. - *Glacier retreat* is *65% faster* in *2011-2020* vs previous decade. - *World Bank* warns of *30-40% decrease* in *Indus flows*. # *IMPORTANT Facts and Figures out of the article*: - *Pakistan* receives *80%* of water from *Indus River System* (*Pakistan Water Partnership*, 2024). - *Agricultural sector* consumes *90%* of *Pakistan's water* (*FAO*, 2024). - *Pakistan* faces *water stress* with *1,017 cubic meters* per capita annually (*World Bank*, 2024). - *Indus Delta* has lost *92%* of its *original mangrove cover* (*WWF*, 2024). - *Groundwater depletion* rate is *3 cm/year* in *Punjab* (*NASA*, 2024). - *Pakistan* ranks *80th* in *water security* globally (*Asian Development Bank*, 2024). # *MCQs from the Article*: ### 1. *What was the average inflow of western rivers during 1976-98?* A. 120.8 MAF *B. 135.6 MAF* C. 140.5 MAF D. 125.3 MAF ### 2. *By what percentage did flows below Panjnad barrage decline?* A. 50% B. 60% *C. 65%* D. 70% ### 3. *How much additional water do under-construction projects require?* A. 10 MAF *B. 12 MAF* C. 15 MAF D. 8 MAF ### 4. *How much faster is glacier retreat in 2011-2020 compared to previous decade?* A. 50% B. 60% *C. 65%* D. 70% ### 5. *What is the storage capacity of Bhasha dam mentioned in the article?* A. 5.4 MAF *B. 6.4 MAF* C. 7.4 MAF D. 8.4 MAF # *VOCABULARY*: 1. *Knee-jerk* (فوری رد عمل) – Immediate, automatic reaction 2. *Resuscitated* (زندہ کیا گیا) – Revived or brought back to life 3. *Surplus* (اضافی) – Excess amount beyond what is needed 4. *Plummeting* (تیزی سے گرنا) – Falling rapidly or sharply 5. *Contradictory* (متضاد) – Opposite or conflicting 6. *Debouch* (نکلنا) – Emerge or flow out 7. *Confluence* (سنگم) – Point where rivers meet 8. *Withdrawals* (نکالنا) – Taking out or removing 9. *Corroborated* (تصدیق شدہ) – Confirmed or supported 10. *Drastic* (شدید) – Severe or extreme 11. *Cusecs* (کیوسک) – Cubic feet per second (water flow unit) 12. *Colossal* (عظیم) – Extremely large or great 13. *Glacial retreat* (برفانی پیچھے ہٹنا) – Glacier melting and shrinking 14. *Menacingly* (خطرناک طریقے سے) – In a threatening manner 15. *Panacea* (رام بان) – Universal cure or solution 16. *Waterscape* (آبی منظر) – Water-related landscape 17. *Prudent* (دانشمندانہ) – Wise and careful 18. *Quacks* (نیم حکیم) – Unqualified practitioners 19. *Trite* (فرسودہ) – Overused and lacking originality 20. *Precarious* (خطرناک) – Uncertain or dependent on chance 📢 *Attention Please!* We appreciate your commitment to acquiring knowledge through our summaries. Please be reminded not to remove the attribution label affixed to this article. It is crucial to acknowledge the source and the effort invested in creating this summary. We discourage any unauthorized distribution without proper credit. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation. 🔍 ⚡ *Explore More Summaries, Solutions, and Vocabulary Meanings* 💡 Join our WhatsApp Channel for timely and comprehensive summaries of the latest articles, along with well-crafted solutions and helpful vocabulary meanings. Click the link below to join now 🔗 [Dawn Article Summaries](https://cssmcqs.com/dawn-editorials-articles-summary-for-students-pdf-download/) *WhatsApp Channel Link*: [https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va7tT3o35fLnJeFbpS2y](https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va7tT3o35fLnJeFbpS2y) --- *www.dawn.com* *No surplus water* *Naseer Memon* *5 - 6 minutes* IN a knee-jerk reaction to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, the campaign for new dams has been resuscitated. The prime minister, too, has emphasised the need for new dams. However, an essential condition for dam construction is surplus water. Contrary to claims that water is wasted as it enters the sea, flows in the Indus river system are plummeting. Flow patterns during 1976-2000 and 2001-2024 exhibit contradictory patterns in the Indus basin rivers. A look at the flow pattern at four critical points sheds more light. Pakistan's river network is divided into two broad categories of the eastern rivers (Sutlej and Ravi) and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab), under Indian and Pakistani control respectively. The eastern rivers debouch into the Indus below the Panjnad barrage. An analysis of 50 years of river flows at these locations reveal that the waters in the basin are decreasing. Climate change and transboundary diversions have affected river flows. The average inflows of western rivers at their rim stations were 135.6 MAF during 1976-98. However, average inflows by 1999-2022 had decreased to 120.8 MAF. Similarly, the average annual flows in the eastern rivers have reduced from 9.35 MAF during 1976-98 to just 2.96 MAF during 1999-2022. Flows below the Panjnad barrage — the point of confluence of three eastern rivers plus the Jhelum river — also registered a decline of 65pc. The average annual discharges below the Panjnad barrage during 1976-2000 were 20.5 MAF. This declined to 7.5 MAF in 2001-2024. Consequently, the annual canal withdrawals of the provinces reduced from 102.73 MAF (1977-78 to 1981-82) to 95.85 MAF over 25 years. Similarly, the average annual flows below Kotri Barrage tumbled from 40.7 MAF to 14.8 MAF from 1976-99 to 1999-2023. This is corroborated by the fact that 12 of the last 25 years witnessed less than 10 MAF flows below Kotri Barrage. Dam construction requires sufficient water. Declining inflows and increased upstream diversions and storage have taken a huge toll on barrage discharges in Sindh located at the tail end of the Indus basin. The frequency of floods at Guddu Barrage has also experienced a drastic reduction. Guddu Barrage received medium floods of over 400,000 cusecs for 23 years during 1976-2000. However, floods of the same level were registered for only 10 years over the last 24 years. Likewise, the frequency of high flooding of 500,000 cusecs declined from 20 times to only seven in the same years. Sukkur Barrage experienced five super floods of over 800,000 cusecs during 1976-2000. Compared to that, only one super flood was experienced in the subsequent 24 years. The disturbing trend has been captured by a World Bank report Pakistan's Water Economy: Running Dry. The report warns that due to rapid glacial retreat, the Indus basin is likely to endure a colossal decrease of 30 to 40 per cent in its flows in the coming decades. The UN's World Water Development Report 2025 has also underscored concerns about our water future. The report reveals that glacier retreat in the Hindukush-Himalayan region is alarmingly high — 65pc faster during 2011-2020 compared to the previous decade. These ice and snow deposits are also melting menacingly faster than the global average. It does not take a genius to conclude that river flows in the basin are declining sharply. It makes the situation more complicated for water managers. They ought to shun their over-simplistic panacea of constructing new dams and diversions. The waterscape of the Indus basin me­­­rits prudent de­cision-making. Many wa­­ter qua­cks conti­nue to in­­sist on their trite prescription of more dams, without realising that the present river flows are not enough to cater even to our current water needs. Moreover, under-construction storage and diversion projects also require a substantial quantum of water, a fact that is often ignored when prescribing new dams. The ongoing projects require an estimated 12 MAF of additional water. These projects include the Bhasha dam (6.4 MAF), the Mohmand dam (0.88 MAF), the Kurram Tangi dam (0.9 MAF), the CRBC Lift cum Gravity project (1.19 MAF), the Kachhi canal (1.21 MAF), the Rainee canal (1.25 MAF), the Pat Feeder Extension (0.1 MAF), the Nai Gaj dam (0.16 MAF) and other small storage sites. Pakistan's national water policy has rightly emphasised the need to increase water efficiency and productivity. The policy also recognises the need for the conservation of water-dependent ecosystems, especially in the Indus delta, which have been degraded to precarious levels due to massive upstream diversions in the last century. Pakistan needs to move from concrete structures to the efficient use of water. The writer is a civil society professional. [email protected] Published in Dawn, June 16th, 2025