Samasthiti Advisors
Samasthiti Advisors
June 13, 2025 at 12:39 PM
๐—ฆ๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ ๐—”๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ฟโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ๐—น๐˜† ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ ๐—™๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฏ, ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ ๐Ÿญ. ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ โ€“ ๐—•๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ-๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€, ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜€ ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ ย ย โ€ข ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ, with the Nifty 50 rising 1.37% and the broader Nifty 500 up 1.5%. Gains were led by large-cap and diversified indices, as investors responded positively to falling inflation, policy stability, and stronger global cues. ย ย โ€ข ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ก๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜๐˜† ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜… ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ, up 2.08%, pointing to widespread participation across constituents rather than a narrow rally in a few heavyweights. ย ย โ€ข ๐— ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฑ๐—น๐˜†, with the Nifty Midcap 150 down 1.4% after a sharp run-up. In contrast, ๐˜€๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น-๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜€ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ถ๐—ฟ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜†, rising 1.8%, fuelled by continued flows into micro-cap names and strong momentum in industrials and financials. ย ย โ€ข ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ก๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿต๐Ÿญ%, rebounding from recent underperformance. This indicates a possible return of investor interest in second-tier largecaps, especially after recent valuation corrections. ย ย โ€ข ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ-๐˜๐—ผ-๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜-๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ด๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜†, supported by resilient corporate earnings, declining inflation, and the RBIโ€™s recent shift to a more accommodative stance. ๐Ÿฎ. ๐—™๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ & ๐—ฆ๐˜๐˜†๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€ โ€“ ๐— ๐—ถ๐˜…๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ย ย โ€ข ๐—”๐—น๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐˜„ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฏ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ, with the Nifty Alpha 50 slipping 0.3% after a strong two-week run. This suggests some profit booking in high-beta, stock-picking names that had previously led the rally. ย ย โ€ข ๐—Ÿ๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น, with both the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 and Quality 30 indices up between 1.4% and 1.7%. These styles benefitted from renewed demand for stable growth, as investors rebalanced portfolios post-RBI cut. ย ย โ€ข ๐— ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜‚๐—บ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—บ, with the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 up 1.1% for the week and nearly 17% over the last 3 monthsโ€”evidence that trend-following strategies continue to deliver, despite rising market breadth. ย ย โ€ข ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ-๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐˜๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„-๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐˜†, also registered modest gains, reflecting a balanced investor preference for both risk-taking and downside protection. ๐Ÿฏ. ๐—™๐—ถ๐˜…๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฒ โ€“ ๐—ฌ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€, ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฏ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ย ย โ€ข ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐—น๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜๐—น๐˜†, with the 10-year government bond yield falling 7 basis points to 6.31%. This continues the softening trend post-RBI's June rate cut and indicates that markets expect further easing down the line. ย ย โ€ข ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜-๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜†, with the 6-month T-bill yield down 51 basis points over the past month. Liquidity remains abundant, and demand for short-dated paper is strong. ย ย โ€ข ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜†๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป, though at a gentler pace, as market participants assess the RBI's next steps. ๐Ÿฐ. ๐—š๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€ โ€“ ๐—˜๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜, ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐˜ ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ด๐˜€ ย ย โ€ข ๐—จ.๐—ฆ. ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฏ, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.78% and 1.89%, respectively. Strong tech performance and easing inflation expectations are keeping sentiment positive. ย ย โ€ข ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‡๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ, with the DAX down 2.3% and the CAC 40 flat to slightly negative. Political uncertainty in France and softer industrial data weighed on sentiment. ย ย โ€ข ๐—”๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜€ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ, with Japanโ€™s Nikkei flat and Hong Kongโ€™s Hang Seng up 0.6%. Chinese stimulus expectations and signs of improved credit flow continued to support regional indices. ย ย โ€ข ๐—จ.๐—ฆ. ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ณ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป, with CPI falling to 2.07%, increasing market conviction that the Fed may start cutting rates by Q4 2025. This contrasts with India's already proactive monetary easing. ๐Ÿฑ. ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ & ๐—–๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐˜† โ€“ ๐—š๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป, ๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€ ย ย โ€ข ๐—š๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜†, up 2.9% this week and over 31% year-to-date. Gold remains in demand as a hedge against global volatility, currency depreciation, and geopolitical uncertainty. ย ย โ€ข ๐—–๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—น ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ, with Brent trading near $74 per barrel, as concerns over global demand continue to outweigh OPEC+ production controls. ย ย โ€ข ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐—น๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜๐—น๐˜† ๐˜๐—ผ โ‚น๐Ÿด๐Ÿฒ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿต ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—จ๐—ฆ๐——, reflecting the rate differential between the Fed and RBI. However, FPI inflows and a strong macro backdrop are helping limit the downside. ๐—จ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—น ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ ๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ, ๐Ÿ‘‹ ๐—ฏ๐˜†๐—ฒ! ๐ŸŒŸ

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