S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
S&P Global Commodity Insights First Take
June 16, 2025 at 04:14 PM
FIRST TAKE: Softening signals out of Iran BEARISH for near-term oil price sentiment   * ICE Brent rally slows significantly; prompt contract down early June 16 * Fundamentals still bearish with expected crude build Q3-Q4 (split between stocks afloat, China and elsewhere). * Iranian oil export capacity remains mostly unaffected, with the possible exception of South Pars condensate (~75,000-80,000 b/d). Asian condensate differentials to Dated Brent down slightly June 16.   News reports that Iran is signaling a desire to end the fighting with Israel early June 16 are BEARISH for near-term oil price sentiment. Prompt ICE Brent was trading almost $3/b lower, effectively erasing much of the market rally late last week. It is too soon to say for certain, however, as fighting has already moved beyond simple tit-for-tat measures.   Iran has signaled it would like to reopen negotiations on its nuclear capabilities in a bid to halt Israel’s attacks and to keep the US from joining the conflict, and the oil market appears to be responding to this news. Israel has repeatedly said it would continue attacks until Iran’s nuclear capabilities are destroyed.   So far, only limited damage to Iranian and Israeli oil infrastructure has been seen. Strikes near the Tehran and Haifa refineries do not appear to have damaged the process units.   Larger risks to supply – a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on Iran’s Kharg Island export capacity, or wider Iranian attacks on neighboring Gulf infrastructure – remain very unlikely at this point.   James Bambino, Richard Joswick, Zhuwei Wang   Read on Platts Connect: https://tinyurl.com/4kbnwkbj
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