Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
May 29, 2025 at 05:55 PM
*Grupo Supervielle (SUPV): 1Q25 Results* See report here: https://tinyurl.com/AdcapSUPV1Q25Results *Grupo Supervielle (SUPV US; Not Rated) reported weak 1Q25 results, with net income falling to ARS 7.9 billion*—down 89% y/y and 74% q/q—driven by losses on sovereign bond holdings and rising credit costs. ROE dropped to 3.5%, the low end of our expected range, while NIM compressed to 19.2% due to declining returns on the investment portfolio. That said, client-related net interest income grew 17% q/q and 15% y/y, supported by solid loan growth (+104% y/y real), especially in retail, which now makes up over half the loan book. *We expect a normalization in government securities to lift ROE by 2–3% in coming quarters.* *Asset quality remained healthy, with NPLs at 2.0%* and cost of risk rising to 5.0%, in line with revised guidance. Deposits grew 7.7% q/q and 34% y/y in real terms, supported by a successful rollout of remunerated accounts. Operating efficiency improved, with expenses down 17% y/y and an efficiency ratio of 59.6%. Despite the earnings miss, *management maintained full-year ROE guidance of 12–15% and highlighted ample capital (CET1 at 15.3%) and optionality for a capital increase.* Near-term pressures remain, but SUPV continues to lay the groundwork for profitable growth.

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