Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 2, 2025 at 10:06 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUN 2 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • The day opened weak but ended at the highs. Argentina outperformed the region, finishing slightly positive despite a drop in US Treasury prices. Just to give you a sense—long-dated Treasuries were down a full point, with the 30-year yield hitting 5%, and the 10-year at 4.46%, up by half a point. So, most LATAM countries are closing in the red, but Argentina is finishing about 15–20 cents better bid. • ARGENT 2030 closed at $78.65, ARGENT 2035 at $67.35 and ARGENT 2041 at $62.30. Earlier this morning, these same bonds were trading roughly 30 cents lower. • As for Boprea, the 2026s traded around $99, and the 27 C & D series outperformed—closing about 40 cents better bid. Within the hard currency sovereign curve, those were the standout performers. • On the provincials side, BUENOS had closed Friday around $72.25 and today, it traded as high as $72.45 and closed around 72.50 mid-market. Notably, Buenos Aires bonds are outperforming the less liquid 5.875% 2037s, now yielding about 50 basis points more than Buenos. • Turning to the local market, the new Bonte performed strongly, trading in a $107–$108 range, with actual prints around those levels and close to par. • In corporates, Vista announced a new 7-year issue, and we saw the Vista 2035s 75 cents more offered, now yielding around 8.35%. There was also selling in TGS 2031, which we believe looks expensive on the curve, and also in Pampa 2031. On the high-yield side, we continued to see demand in CLISA and MSUNRG. As for YPF, its curve outperformed the rest of the corporate space today, with both the 2031s and 2034s closing 25 cents better bid. • The official fx dropped to ARS 1180 while the BCS closed at ARS 1194 per dollar. • Argentine equities extended losses on Monday, the Merval closed at $1,851 down 2.3% in USD terms, as risk appetite remained muted across local names despite a recovery in Brent and strong gains abroad. The Merval closed dropping 2.3% from Friday's USD 1,894.5. This underperformance stood in contrast to Wall Street, where the Nasdaq gained 0.6%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Dow added 0.1%. Brent crude rebounded 2.9% to USD 64.60 per barrel, following OPEC+’s decision to maintain a gradual output increase and amid signs of falling US production. • Positive day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate up an average of 0.2%, inflation-linked up an average of 0.1% and dollar-linked down an average of 0.5%. • On the dollar side, the week began with weak demand. The futures curve closed with generalized declines of 0.6%, the official dollar posted a more pronounced drop of 1.2%, while financial dollars fell 1% in the CCL and 0.7% in the MEP. • Peso bonds had a solid trading session from the market open, with stronger demand in the fixed-rate segment compared to CER. This resulted in more pronounced increases along the fixed-rate curve by the close, particularly concentrated at the long end. Dollar-linked bonds moved in line with FX performance, explaining the 0.5% to 1% declines across the segment.

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