
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 3, 2025 at 09:58 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 03 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Sovereign Bonds started strong, up by half a point in the morning, with the ARGENT 2030s trading around $79.15 and the ARGENT 2035s nearly reaching $68, and the 2046s at $66. However, the market got weaker in the afternoon and ended basically unchanged from yesterday. There wasn’t much flow.
• The new Bonte saw very little trading, at ARS 107.5 mid-price.
• We saw demand for the longer Bopreas, which did outperform a bit, ending 30 to 40 cents higher.
• On the provincial side, BUENOS traded in a $72.5 to $72.75 range and ended a bit weaker at 72.5. The 5.875s are still lagging, yielding about 60 basis points more than the 6.625s.
• In corporates, the new Telecom bond is doing very well—up 2.5 points from where it was issued. The YPF curve has also been well bid for a while. For a long time, the YPFDAR 2047s were yielding 20 to 30 basis points inside the 2034s, which we thought was expensive. Now we’re seeing some selling, and they’re trading roughly flat.
• On the FX front, not much movement.
• As for stocks, the Merval rebounded 0.6% in USD terms on Monday, closing at $1,857, supported by a broad recovery in energy stocks and a midday reversal in local sentiment. After starting the session in negative territory—particularly weighed by banks—the local market found strength past noon, following gains in US equities and a strong rebound in energy names. The standout was GeoPark (GPRK), which jumped 8.2%, continuing its rally after Pampa Energía disclosed the acquisition of a 10.2% stake in the company. With energy names leading and banks still lagging, the market seems to be rotating toward names with clearer upside catalysts, though volatility remains elevated across the board.
• Mixed day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate up an average of 0.1%, inflation-linked down an average of 0.2%, and dollar-linked up an average of 0.5%.
• Dollars were in demand again, with the dollar futures curve closing with slight increases on the short end and more marked increases on the long end. The official dollar rose 0.2%, while the CCL and MEP increased by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively.
• Peso bonds had a neutral day. The fixed-rate curve saw slight declines in the mid-section, offset by more significant increases at the long end, leading the segment to close slightly positive on average. On the CER side, declines were more pronounced and generalized across the curve. Meanwhile, dollar-linked bonds saw broad-based gains across the curve, in line with today’s FX movements.