
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 5, 2025 at 10:18 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 05 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• After a heavy close yesterday, Argentine Bonds opened heavy today, while other LatAm bonds were trading positively. Bonds opened 25 cents down and closed near the lows—80 cents down, with the ARGENT 2035 at $66.30 and the ARGENT 2030 at $76.75. Argentina was the most negative in the region, and things accelerated further after the news about Elon Musk and Trump—Trump announcing cuts to EV subsidies and Musk firing back hard, not only defending himself by saying he wants to reduce the deficit (unlike Trump or the Republicans), but also bringing up Epstein’s files.
• Bopreas were also a bit more offered, but relatively outperformed, down only around 25 cents.
• In the provincial space, FUEGO dropped 3 points after a long period of no trading. BUENOS bonds underperformed the sovereigns: the 5.875s of 2037 closed around $61–$61.5, while the 6.625s traded at $71.25–$71.75. We saw demand for the City of Buenos Aires bond, which ended 75 cents better bid, closing around $101.5–$102, likely as the result of conservative investors reinvesting the 33% amortization recently paid. Just a reminder that not long ago the City was planning investor meetings in New York, likely for some kind of liability management. Still, on a day when everything else (sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns) was offered, the City stood out with a stronger bid.
• In corporates, the new Vista bond, which apparently priced very cheap, traded all day at 100.125 to 100.25. Vista 2035s were more offered, closing at $95–$95.50, though they’re still trading inside the 2033s in yield terms. There was some light demand in the YPF curve, especially in the 2034s, but overall activity was very low.
• FX stayed calm around the 1200 level.
• As for stocks, the Merval in USD posted a modest 0.3% decline on Thursday, closing at $1,767. While losses continued, the pace of the selloff eased after several sharp sessions. A few financial names began to recover slightly, offering tentative signs of stabilization. Although fundamentals remain solid, recent earnings disappointments from banks and the shifting market sentiment continue to weigh on overall performance.
• Mixed day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate down by an average of 0.1%, inflation-linked up by an average of 0.1%, and dollar-linked up by an average of 0.4%.
• Dollars closed higher again, with the futures curve up approximately 0.3%, the official dollar rising a more marked 0.5%, and financial dollars showing mixed movements—CCL up 0.2% and MEP down 0.1%—slightly narrowing the spread between them.
• Peso bonds showed mixed performance across curves. Fixed-rate bonds opened weaker and ended the day with losses concentrated at the long end, except for the BONTE 2030, which rose 0.1% and stood out due to its high trading volume. Inflation-linked bonds performed better overall, driven by gains in the short end of the curve, while the middle and long tranches closed with declines.