Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 9, 2025 at 09:37 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 09 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Quiet day with Argentine sovereigns trading in the morning 20 cents higher than Friday. After the inflation print of the City of Buenos Aires at 1.6%, bonds peaked 50 cents higher (the ARGENT 2030s at $78.85, the 2035s at $67). Bonds closed at $78.5 for the 2030s and $66.65 for the 2035s, giving up half of today’s rally. In sovereigns, we’re seeing demand for relative value between the 2030s and 2035s. The spread has moved from $10.75 to $11.65 bid.
• Boprea was better bid with light volume.
• The new Bonte 2030 was better bid, trading between ARS 111.75 and ARS 112.50, in line with the recommendation we sent last week.
• Provincial bonds: BUENOS bonds didn’t trade but closed slightly better bid in the $71.5/$71.75 context. Both Salta and Mendoza were at least one point better bid. Tomorrow, the Province of Córdoba has to pay US$120 million in principal, so Reserves are likely to drop by that amount in the coming days.
• On the corporate side, not much activity—light trading. The new Vista bond was up 20 cents, closing the day at 100.2/100.60.
• As for the stocks, the Merval in USD dropped 2.0%, closing at $1,761. After Friday’s strong close, today’s pullback was broad and marked by weakness in both energy and financial names. Technically, the Merval now trades just above its 200-day EMA, a key support level that investors will be watching closely in the coming sessions.
• Mixed day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate bonds up an average of 0.3%, inflation-linked bonds with no average change, and dollar-linked bonds down an average of 0.2%.
• Dollars had a quiet trading session. The future dollar curve closed with slight mixed movements, while the official dollar fell 0.3%. On the financial dollar side, both CCL and MEP remained unchanged from Friday's close.
• Peso bonds showed differentiated behavior across curves, with attention focused on the release of the CABA CPI, which broke below 2% and printed at 1.6% for May. The fixed-rate curve saw stronger demand following the data, with more pronounced increases at the long end, while the short end showed mixed movements. The BONTE 2030 once again stood out in the fixed-rate segment in terms of performance, rising 1.4%; however, despite maintaining high volume, it was not the most traded bond of the curve this time.