Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 10, 2025 at 10:21 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 10 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• A quiet day globally, with little volatility in US equities and Treasuries. In Argentina, the market started slightly positive and is closed at the highs.
• Following yesterday’s announcements from the Treasury and Central Bank —See our report here https://tinyurl.com/20250610AdcapMI— we saw some better bids come through. • During a streaming of the economic team, we saw prices rally—marking the highs of the day for the ARGENT 2030 at $79.5. The 2035, which is still some way from its all-time high, was trading at $67.5 at that point. There was a slight correction of about 20 cents but the bonds remained positive on the day. By midday and following the news of an imminent Supreme Court ruling on CFK's case, we saw another leg higher. The ARGENT 2030 printed at $80, and the ARGENT 2035 at $68. The entire curve ended roughly one point better bid.
• Regarding the New Bonte 2030, the monthly $1B cap on issuance announced yesterday, led it to open up at ARS 113. However, after the remarks by the economic team this morning in streaming, we saw a pullback, and it ended the day below ARS 111. Some clients, especially offshore, were hesitant—trying to exit through a local bank to gain official FX access.
• On the provincial side, BUENOS bonds, which had closed yesterday at $71.625, traded between $72 and 72.33, and ended the day around $72.5–$73 on the back of CFK's headlines. We also saw stronger bids in PDCAR 29, which traded at 95. This bond is trading wide to the 27s, and we believe it has further upside.
• In corporates, we didn’t see the same level of rally as in sovereigns, but the space ended firmer overall. The new Vista, which had been stagnant and came out cheap near par, finally traded at $100.5 today. YPF 2034s and 2047s also had interesting moves. We had been noting for a while that the 2047s were trading 30bps inside the 34s, which looked expensive. That has now corrected, and the 2034s are trading 15bps inside the 2047s.
• The FX remained stable around ARS 1190.
• As for stocks, Merval index climbed 4.8% in USD terms to close at $1,845. The index rallied from the open, up 2.9% early in the session, led by the oil and gas sector, which tracked Brent’s rebound to early-April levels—prices not seen since tensions rose from geopolitical moves by Trump and tariffs. The Merval remains just above its 200-day EMA, maintaining a technically positive setup. On the ADR board, broad gains dominated. Leading the rally were YPF (+7.6%), TEO (+6.8%), and GGAL (+6.1%), with strong performances also from GPRK (+5.1%) and SUPV (+5.0%). The rally was widespread, with key players like EDN (+4.4%), TGS (+4.3%), LOMA (+4.2%), and VIST (+4.1%) also sharply higher.
• Positive day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate up an average of 0.1%, inflation-linked up an average of 0.2% and dollar-linked down an average of 0.2%.
• Dollars presented mixed movements. The future dollar curve closed with slight increases in the shortest contracts and slight declines in the longest ones, while the official dollar showed no average change compared to the previous day. Financial dollars moved lower, with decreases of approximately 0.3%.
• Peso bonds showed timid increases, particularly in the fixed-rate curve, where slight upticks were observed in the short tranche, while the long tranche—particularly the BONTE 2030—fell by 1%. The CER segment stood out in terms of performance, with more pronounced increases in securities maturing in 2026.