Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 11, 2025 at 09:48 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 11 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• The market opened this morning with the news about CFK's conviction, which actually broke yesterday after markets had already closed. Global markets opened calm, and the US CPI print came in below expectations, which also helped sentiment—equities opened stronger. However, despite that, both the S&P and Nasdaq closed slightly in the red.
• In Argentina, the first prints came in about 50 cents higher than yesterday’s close. The ARGENT 2030, which had printed an all-time high of $80 yesterday but closed at $79.75, opened at $80.25. The ARGENT 2035s opened at $68.25, also up half a point. However, as the US equity session turned negative, prices gradually faded. The latest prints were ARGENT 2030 at $79.60 and 2035 at $67.60—about 20 cents down from yesterday’s close, and roughly 75 cents off today’s highs. Volumes remain light. We continue to see demand in 30/35 Relative Value—today we saw trades totaling around $12 million.
• In the local market, the New BONTE 2030 was weaker. Yesterday it briefly touched ARS 113 in the morning but ultimately closed around ARS 111– ARS 111.5. Today, it finished lower at ARS 110.5–ARS 111.
• In the provinces, BUENOS opened in line with the sovereign rally at $73, but last prints were back at $72.5 offered.
• Not much action in corporates today. Where we did see sustained demand was in the new Vista, which traded as high as $101, well bid throughout the day, mostly from retail. We also saw the YPF curve firmer—up about 30 cents.
• The FX remained quiet close to ARS 1200
• Right after the close, the terms of the Central Bank repo were finally announced. Seven banks participated, totaling $2 billion at 8.25%.
• As for stocks, Argentine equities pulled back, with the Merval falling 1.3% in USD terms to $1,821, pressured by a weaker performance across most sectors. The local index dropped in line with global sentiment, but underperformed relative to major U.S. benchmarks. Profit-taking after Tuesday’s rally, combined with specific equity catalysts, drove the move. The session was marked by a sharp drop in Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL -1.9%) which was almost -8% down in early trading, following HSBC’s announcement of a secondary sale of 11.7 million ADRs (equivalent to 117 million Class B shares) priced at a 4–7% discount. The offering, executed via OTC and registered in the U.S., generated no proceeds for GGAL, preserving its capital structure. The deal spurred heavy early trading volume and pulled the stock down more than 5% intraday before partially recovering.
• Neutral day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds showing no average change compared to yesterday, and dollar-linked bonds down 0.3% on average.
• Dollars decompressed. Both the future dollar curve and the official dollar closed lower, with declines of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Financial dollars followed a similar dynamic, with drops of around 0.3%.
• Peso bonds showed a bearish stance despite the lower FX, starting with the fixed-rate curve, where the long end showed weakness from the opening, with declines ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The segment closed neutral on average due to slight increases in the short tranche, supported by concentrated and elevated activity in the S18J5. Inflation-linked bonds exhibited mixed movements along the curve, with no clear trend, while dollar-linked bonds posted generalized declines, in line with the foreign exchange behavior.