Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 12, 2025 at 10:08 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 12 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• Not much activity today. Sovereign Bonds opened down about 30 cents, with the ARGENT 2035s at $67.25 and the ARGENT 2030s at $79.25. The 2030s remained around the same level, while the 2035s recovered slightly to $67.5. The bond market seemed in wait-and-see mode ahead of the 4PM inflation print.
• The print was rumored to come at 1.5% and Bonds in pesos rallied. The new Bonte 2030, that has been under pressure since the streaming traded as low as 109.50 and recovered to ARS 110.75/111.25 after the rumor.
• By 4PM, the rumor was confirmed at 1.5% m/m, sharply below consensus at 2.0% and April’s 2.8%. Although core inflation remained sticky (2.2%), the headline figure gave further evidence of disinflation traction.
• In provinces, BUENOS traded at $72.25 and remains offered there.
• In corporates, we continue to see retail demand, with most bonds—particularly the more recent issuances—trading better bid.
• FX market mostly unchanged around ARS 1200 per dollar.
• As for stocks, the Merval index gained 0.7% in USD terms to close at $1,838, supported by a stronger close in local prices. The advance reflected a mildly constructive session for Argentine equities, with global indices also in positive territory, while domestic news flow around inflation and international oil markets shaped sentiment.
• Mixed day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate up an average of 0.3%, inflation-linked with no average change compared to yesterday, and dollar-linked down an average of 0.1%.
• Dollars had a neutral trading session. The dollar futures curve closed with slight and mixed movements along the curve, while the official dollar showed no average change compared to yesterday. On the financial dollar side, both the CCL and the MEP remained unchanged.
• Peso bonds showed mixed performance by segment. The fixed-rate curve closed with slight increases in the short tranche and more pronounced increases in the long tranche. The market began to show demand for fixed-rate instruments ahead of the release of the May CPI; afterward, there was virtually no reaction, as favorable data had already been priced prior to the official release. Inflation-linked bonds showed no relevant movements, closing the day flat, while dollar-linked bonds closed with declines, concentrated in 2026 maturities.