Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 13, 2025 at 09:48 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 13 CLOSING COMMENTS:*
• After last night’s reports of Israel striking Iran over the nuclear issue, US markets opened down 1.5%. Now comes Iran’s response and missiles are raining. In the meantime, equities are closed in the red and US Treasury yields are moved higher with the 10y bouncing to 4.40%.
• In Argentina, Sovereign Bonds opened weaker—about 30 cents down in another typical low-liquidity summer Friday. Bonds closed around half a point lower, with some final prints ARGBON 2030 which traded at $68.10 yesterday and last traded at $67.60 today. The ARGENT 2038s closed at $70.75 and the ARGENT 30s at $78.60.
• In provincials, we saw some flow in BUENOS 2037s around the $72 level.
• As for corporates, retail continues to buy throughout the curve. We saw solid demand with stable or even better bids in most cases. So, in a day when Argentine assets sold off, most corporate bonds managed to hold in positive territory.
• As for stocks, the Merval index fell 3.0% in USD terms to close at $1,782, despite a slight appreciation in the BCS. The selloff came after a strong run earlier in the week, with profit-taking and risk aversion prevailing across most sectors. Oil & gas names opened higher following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude surged 6.1% to $73.8, and WTI rose 6.6% to $71.8 after Israeli air strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, reportedly killing two senior commanders. While Iran claimed no damage to oil installations, markets priced in potential supply risks, driving energy stocks higher early in the day. However, the rally faded toward the close: Vista opened 5% higher but finished up just 1.0%, and YPF pared early gains from +3.0% to a final close of +0.2%. PAM, in contrast, reversed entirely, falling 2.6% after a positive start. Elsewhere, Loma Negra (LOMA) declined 3.3%, pressured by the news that Itau sold its BRL 2.5bn credit against InterCement to bondholders. The transaction, which grants bondholders direct claims over LOMA shares as collateral, raised concerns over potential impacts from InterCement’s ongoing debt restructuring process. Market breadth was negative across the ADR board, with most names in the red.
• After market closed, the $500 Mn reopening of the New Bonte 2030, was cut at 26.7% or ARS 108.8, 1% below the secondary market at 26.3% or ARS 110. The Treasury left out $600 Mn of unsatisfied demand above that 26.7% rate.
• Positive day for inflation-linked and fixed-rate peso bonds, up an average of 0.5%, and dollar-linked bonds up an average of 0.4%.
• Dollars closed the week with mixed movements. Dollar futures ended with slight generalized declines along the curve, while the official dollar recorded a slight increase of 0.2%. On the financial dollar side, the CCL rose 0.3% and the MEP 0.5%.
• Peso bonds closed with notable increases across all three segments. The fixed-rate curve continued to show generalized compression, with more pronounced increases in the long end. Inflation-linked bonds posted relevant increases in both the short and long ends of the curve. Among dollar-linked bonds, the TZV25 stood out in terms of both performance and volume, rising 0.4%, in line with FX movements.