Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 17, 2025 at 11:15 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 17 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • Argentina traded poorly all day. Despite that, the FX appreciated and reached ARS 1180. Sovereigns opened soft and are closing at the lows of the day: ARGENT 2030 at $78.25, the 2035 at $66.25, and the 2038 at $70 flat. Low volumes across the board—feels like the market is tired, struggling for direction. Even though we recently hit highs, today's lack of demand and no compression in spreads is showing fatigue. • Most Latam bonds traded positive today, but Argentina bucked the trend, closing at the lows—about 50 cents below yesterday’s close, which was already a quiet day. That's 35 cents down from Friday. • On the provincial side, we saw some demand in BUENOS bonds, but still softer compared to yesterday and Friday, trading at $71.70. • On the corporate side, bonds continued to outperform—mostly unchanged or even slightly positive. YPF curve was well bid, with multiple trades in the 2034s around par and a half, while the 2047s remain offered, yielding about 20bps over the 34s. Banco Macro came to market today at 8.15%, pricing at $99.15. It didn’t get much traction and ended the day somewhat offered around that level. • Tomorrow is the new Boprea auction (Series 4) and BONTEs issued on Friday at ARS 109 traded up to ARS 110.5. • As for stocks, the Merval dropped 1.9% in USD terms, closing at $1,749. Risk-off sentiment prevailed across global markets, with US indices sharply lower (S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -0.9%) and Argentine ADRs broadly in the red. The weak performance reflects both external pressures and local profit-taking after last week's geopolitical-driven rally. Despite Brent crude climbing 4.1% to USD 75.2 amid ongoing Middle East tensions, energy names saw only marginal support. VIST rose just 0.3%, and YPF slipped 0.1%. • Negative day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds down 0.1% on average, and dollar-linked bonds down 1.3% on average. • Dollars started the week with a strong compression across all quotes. The dollar futures curve closed with a generalized decline of 1%, while the official dollar posted a milder drop of 0.6%. On the financial dollar side, the CCL fell 0.7%, and the MEP declined 1%. • Bonds in pesos had a weak trading session, with declines across all three segments. Fixed-rate bonds saw selling pressure from the market open, closing with slight drops in the short tranche and more pronounced decreases in the long end. In the inflation-linked segment, bonds maturing in 2025 ended with slight increases, while the rest of the curve posted declines.

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