Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
Adcap House View - Finanzas y Mercados
June 18, 2025 at 10:34 PM
*ADCAP SECURITIES JUNE 18 CLOSING COMMENTS:* • US equities were volatile today but ended the day almost flat. The Fed held rates steady and the market continues to price in two rate cuts this year—amounting to 50 basis points. Treasury yields remained flat for most of the session. Geopolitical noise persists, particularly surrounding a potential US response; so far, we’re seeing many headlines and potential retaliation could come from either side. Across the region, most Latin American countries closed flat. • Once again, Argentina stood out with a negative performance, roughly down 50 cents. Among key bonds, the ARGENT 2030 traded at $78.25 and closed around that level; the ARGBON 2035 hovered at $67.75 most of the day; and the ARGBON 2030 printed at $67. • In local markets, the BONTE traded below the clearing price from the tap auction (which priced at ARS 109 on Thursday), briefly hitting ARS 108.70 before recovering to close around ARS 109. • The Peso was strong throughout the day, with the fx closing at 1,142 per dollar. There were various theories about this firm peso—some mentioning dollar sales for tax payments, others suggesting agro exporters are front-running the increase in export duties from 26% to 33% in July. • Regarding Bopreas, the Central Bank issued $810 million in Series 4 maturing 2028, above our expectations. Boprea 1C and 1D were better offered, down about half a point in line with sovereigns, while we saw solid demand in Boprea 1A. • Among provinces, BUENOS bonds closed about a quarter-point weaker, trading in a $71.25–$71.625 range. The desk also had offers in Chubut 2030. • Finally, corporates showed steady demand, with most names better bid, driven mainly by retail accounts. Regarding the new Banco Macro issuance from yesterday—it priced at $99.15 and is trading around $99.50, with little supply from real money accounts and limited profit-taking, but robust retail demand. • As for stocks, the Merval Index rose 0.3% in USD terms to close at $1,753, a mild rebound. The move was modest, coming after Monday’s sharp drop, with strength seen mostly in utilities and industrials, while broader U.S. indices traded mixed to slightly down. Leading the gains were TGS (+3.5%), CEPU (+2.9%), and CAAP (+2.6%), supported by expectations of continued energy demand and infrastructure growth. • Negative day for peso bonds, with fixed-rate bonds showing no average change compared to yesterday, inflation-linked bonds down 0.1% on average, and dollar-linked bonds down 1.9% on average. • Dollars went through a round with strong selling pressure. The dollar futures curve closed with declines of 2% in the short end and 1% in the long end, in line with the performance of the official dollar, which dropped 2.5%. Financial dollars followed a similar path early in the session but rebounded slightly toward the close, ending with a 1.3% decline for the CCL and 1% for the MEP. • Peso bonds continued to weaken. The fixed-rate curve showed losses concentrated on the long end, while the short end posted slight increases that helped offset the deeper declines in longer-duration bonds. A similar trend was observed in the inflation-linked segment. Meanwhile, dollar-linked bonds posted more pronounced declines, mainly driven by the TZV25, which was by far the most actively traded security in the segment and experienced the sharpest drop.

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